The Monday Snitch: Five Bold Predictions
Editor's Note: Jack is away this week. In his absence, I will write today's Monday Snitch.
Today, as most of you know, marks the dawn of a new season. One year ago, few knew the dominance we would see from the University of Texas (Austin, TX) at World Cup VI. Fewer still could have predicted the event would move away from its familiar home in the Northeast to the muggy depths of Florida, or that Middlebury College (Middlebury, VT), the school that started it all, would be absent from the festivities. With all of this in mind, I offer a few bold predictions that will assuredly go awry.
A post-snitch catch moment during one of New York City's summer pick-up games. Photo by Michael E. Mason/IQA Staff.
1. The winner of World Cup VII will hail from the Southwest or West:I'm aware that I'm not really going out on a limb here given that three of the Final Four teams and six of the Elite Eight teams at this year's World Cup hailed from this region; however there are some root causes that I don't think get nearly enough attention. Let's take California and Texas to be representative of their respective regions since five of the seven Western teams in Division I of the World Cup hailed from California, and of the 10 Southwestern teams, seven traveled from Texas. Rarely does the temperature drop below 60 in either state (I used San Francisco and Austin as my basis points). With a spring World Cup, this is a huge advantage, as practicing is a lot more palatable in those conditions. I'm not saying that more northern teams--looking at you Northeast, Eastern Canada, and Midwest--don't practice or can't practice; however, I don't think anyone will argue that it's a lot easier to get players to practice, and practices themselves are better in 60-degree weather than in 30-degree weather with snow on the ground.
The advantage may go beyond the weather though. Setting aside community teams for a second, almost all of the top teams in both regions are public universities--the exceptions are Baylor University (Waco, TX) and the University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA)--which tend to draw disproportionately from their own state--the logical tuition argument is likely the biggest reason. I can't find data on whether the same trends hold true for Baylor and USC, but anecdotally I suspect they do. Evidence also suggests that these states tend to produce an above average rate of pros in just about every sport, even after controlling for population (data was accessed from a variety of sources, primarily blogs and newspaper for different sports). I suppose this could be used to argue that some of the top athletes in these regions would play other sports, but I think it's more plausible that these regions just produce better athletes--once again, this could be owing to the weather.
I don't know exactly which team will take home the title. Both finalists, Texas and UCLA (Los Angeles, CA) are going to be hit hard by graduation. However, other top teams like Baylor, Texas A&M University (College Station, TX) and USC should be back as strong as ever. This of course doesn't account for the potential all stars that UCLA and Texas have waiting in the wings, and the boost that community teams like the Lost Boys (Lomita, CA) and the long-rumored Lone Star Quidditch could receive from all of these graduations. As I said, I don't know who will win, but if I had to bet, I think it'll be one of the seven teams named in this paragraph.
2. The Southern Region will be a lot better than last year
Florida correspondent Tyler Goss covered the region's fall last week, but I think the truth is that the Southern teams--especially the Florida ones--aren't as bad as they looked. While the University of Florida (Gainesville, FL) didn't look like the team that played at World Cup V, they also had to face a tough pool at World Cup, boasting the Silicon Valley Skrewts (Mountain View, CA), Penn State University (University Park, PA) and Rochester Institute of Technology (Rochester, NY). The University of South Florida (Tampa, FL) had a similar problem: having to face USC, Emerson College (Boston, MA), and the University of Minnesota (Minneapolis, MN) all in pool play. I'm not trying to make excuses for either team, but the bottom line is that despite having home-region advantage, the schedule did neither team any favors. The University of Miami (Coral Gables, FL) was considered the class of the south entering World Cup and seemed to justify that earning the No. 3 seed despite a tough pool, but Miami fell in the Round of 32 to Bowling Green State University (Bowling Green, OH). Of course, after that team advanced to the Final Four, Miami's loss to BGSU does not look the same as it did at the time. Once again, a tough schedule as much as anything proved to be a South team's undoing.
All of that said, the South is nowhere near what it was two years ago when Florida reached the finals and USF made the Elite Eight. I don't think either team is likely to achieve that level of success this year, but the region also isn't as bad as it looked at this past World Cup.
3. After a poor World Cup, the Mid-Atlantic will be even worse this year.
The Mid-Atlantic largely disappointed at the World Cup this year. Regional champion Villanova University (Villanova, PA) fell in the Round of 36. Meanwhile, the University of Maryland (College Park, MD), who rivals Villanova for regional supremacy reached the Sweet Sixteen. Penn State, QC Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh, PA), and Virginia Commonwealth University (Richmond, VA), all fell in the Round of 32--although Penn State did earn the No. 10 seed. While the Mid-Atlantic turned in a in a disappointing performance at the World Cup, next year may prove to be even worse. Maryland is losing its anchor, in Team USA Keeper James Hicks, as well as chaser Patrick Rardin, who has been a bedrock of the program since its formation, and former president and beater (and World Cup VII Tournament Director and IQA Development Director) Sarah Woolsey. Villanova meanwhile is losing Team USA chaser (and captain) Zach D'Amico. Although Villanova was able to overcome Maryland in the regional finals last year without their captain, who was attending to an injured player in the hospital, this past spring they were a shell of the squad that took home the regional title. Penn State, who has seemingly always been the third banana in the conference, will also have to contend with the loss of star chaser Michael “Yada” Parada. There may not be a region as decimated by graduation as the Mid-Atlantic.
The regional champion may end up being a team that not only doesn't exist at present, but may not exist even primarily in the region. The NYDC Capitalists, a newly-formed community team based out of both New York and Washington D.C. will likely benefit from the graduation of many of the region's best players; rumors have Parada joining the team as one of its leaders. Given the region's weakness, I would think that the Capitalists may choose to base themselves in the Mid-Atlantic and contend for the region's championship.
Amandy Nagy and Tony Rodriguez of the Lost Boys. Photo by Kat Ignatova/IQA Staff.
4. The rise of community teams is here
It would not shock me if half of the American regions are won by community teams. In addition to the previously discussed Capitalists who are my pick to win the Mid-Atlantic, the Lost Boys are in my opinion the favorites in the West, while the newly-forming Q.C. Boston Massacre (Boston, MA) have a good shot in the Northeast.The Lost Boys are probably in the best shape of any community team--not surprising given their experience. After reaching the Elite Eight led by star keeper Tony Rodriguez and seeker Steve DiCarlo, they stand to benefit from the graduation of many top players from neighboring university teams--UCLA alone has 11 graduating players, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of them choose to stay in LA, in addition to players that may move out there. With their current players gaining a year of experience and familiarity, and their toughest foe losing a bunch of elite players, some of whom may choose to join the Lost Boys, that team is almost definitely the team to beat in the West.
Q.C. Boston Massacre also looks to be the team to beat in their region. Led by Team USA chasers D'Amico and Boston University (Boston, MA) Kedzie Teller, this emerging squad has already proven they have clout. As first reported by Jack ThePhan, the Massacre have recruited one of their biggest rivals to their team in getting Emerson College (Boston, MA) chaser Benny Nadeau to defect. While most of their roster is still unknown, they have a number of terrifying chasers. Additionally, the competition in the Northeast could be lacking, as they featured just two Sweet Sixteen teams: BU, and Emerson. The addition of Jayke Archibald to the massacre also adds one of Hofstra University's (Hempstead, NY) best players from last year.
It wouldn't shock me if another community team can steal a regional championship. The makeup of Lone Star Quidditch is still a mystery--but with so many of defending champion Texas' players graduating I wouldn't be shocked if a few of them show up on the roster--although admittedly not a lot is known about that team, and they will compete in what is probably the world's toughest region. Additionally, a community team forming in Chicago, the Chicago Phoenix, could be a threat in the Midwest depending on the roster they can assemble. Team USA chaser Lawrence Lazewski is rumored to be involved with the squad, and would prove a solid player to build around.5. The Midwest is completely up for grabs.
Revisionist history after World Cup VI had Final Four squad Bowling Green State as the region's best team without question. However, it's worth remembering that while BGSU's Sunday run was impressive, it came after a 2-2 performance on the first day. Marquette University (Milwaukee, WI) won the region, while the University of Kansas (Lawrence, KS) topped Baylor in pool play and eventually reached the Elite Eight. The Ohio State University (Columbus, OH), Michigan Quidditch (Ann Arbor, MI), Central Michigan University (Mount Pleasant, MI), Ball State University, and Michigan State University (East Lansing, MI) all reached bracket play. Last season no Midwest team was elite, but a lot of them were good.
If any team comes out of nowhere, I think it'll be a Midwestern squad. With a vacuum at the top, there is an opportunity for one team to grab the region by the horns--or maybe in this case corn stalks--and seize control. Most of the top teams are associated with large universities, and the recruiting opportunities are huge. It only takes one team to capitalize on these opportunities to become regional champion and a threat to win the World Cup.