The Last Snitch

by Andy Marmer | April 12, 2013

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are those of the author only and do not reflect the opinions of the IQA.

Photo by Deanna Edmunds

Well, it's the day before the World Cup, which means this is the final Daily Snitch. Thank you all for reading. I honestly didn't know if I would be able to write 15 articles in a span of three weeks, but here we are. Before I start with this final column, I'd like to take a minute to thank the people behind the scenes that make everything we do on this site possible: Jen Walsh and Kristin Backert, our copy editors, and Kat Ignatova, our photo editor, who is responsible for all of the amazing sliders you see (and for comparison you can look at the ones I made when I first started).

In this final edition of the Daily Snitch, we're going to look at all of the things that I got wrong. After reading your comments and hearing your feedback, I'm not as sure about some of my picks as I was before, and will even make a few changes. I'm also going to summarize the picks I made, and add a few more pieces of analysis. Finally, I'm going to lay out my entire bracket. I'm not making any changes to my predictions for teams though. This bracket is dependent on matchups and my guess about seeding. The picks I made originally were without projecting matchups in the bracket--something I ultimately think is impossible. Enjoy!

Pool 1: My only change is that I think the University of Kansas (Lawrence, KS) could be a tad stronger than I originally predicted; they've begun to find their groove. I think given the right matchup, Kansas could advance to the Sweet Sixteen. I think Baylor University (Waco, TX) could range between being eliminated in the Sweet Sixteen and winning the title, with a lot of luck, but I stand by them being eliminated in the Elite Eight as the most likely outcome.

Pool 2: This pool features a much larger change. I'm changing my pick in the University of Florida (Gainesville, FL) vs. Silicon Valley Skrewts (Mountain View, CA) matchup. Originally I picked the Silicon Valley Skrewts to come out on top, and I still think they're a very talented team, but I can't see the Florida losing this match. With this match being played at 9:00 A.M., the West-Coast based Skrewts now are effectively playing at 6:00. In contrast to the jet lag they'll be experiencing after having flown for five hours, if they could secure a direct flight (unfortunately I'm not privy to travel plans), Florida will only have to contend with a two-hour drive. Given these intangibles, I think Florida will prevail. I'm also now picking the Skrewts to beat Penn State University (University Park, PA). The motive for this is that I simply can't see the Skrewts allowing themselves to beaten twice. After dropping a match to Florida, I think they'll be locked in for the rest of the day, and win the rest of their Saturday matches. Based on these changes, I can see Florida advancing further, depending on matchups I think they're capable of a run to as far as the Elite Eight, with the more probable occurrence being the Sweet 16. I think the Skrewts in all likelihood have the same range, but with the new lower seed, I think they may find their path to the Sweet 16 harder, and I now see them falling in the Round of 32.

Pool 3: I stand by everything I originally wrote. As I said previously, the Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, MD) and the New York University (New York, NY) matchup could be very good, with a spot in the bracket likely on the line. I see University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI) as a Round of 32 elimination, but depending on their matchup, they could reach the Sweet 16.

Pool 4: This should be fun. Between this and Pool 12, we should be in for some real dandies on Saturday. Originally I struggled between University of South Florida (Tampa, FL) and University of Minnesota (Minneapolis, MN) for the final spot, and I am now changing my pick. At first I went with Minnesota, but I am making this change because of travel and weather. USF will be able to drive, which should be a huge aid in terms of rest when compared to a squad like Minnesota. Additionally I think the weather (forecasts are calling for mid-80s with humidity) could be a tremendous asset for more Southern teams. Most squads from the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast haven't seen this kind of weather in months. I think that this warmer climate as well as Florida's humidity could be a tough adjustment for more northern teams such as Minnesota, possibly draining their energy more quickly, and overall making for tough adjustments.

Pool 5: I think Bowling Green State (Bowling Green, OH) could struggle to make the Sweet 16. As I have said previously with nearly every second place team, it will all depend on the matchup and these matchups are going to be so difficult to predict. A goal or a meaningless snitch catch could be the difference in seed, and have a major impact on bracket matches. I also think I may have underrated Paris Phénix (Paris, FR). I still think they'll finish winless, but I would not be at all surprised if they beat Oklahoma State University (Stillwater, OK).

Pool 6: In my initial article I underrated Marquette University (Milwaukee, WI). It's not that I think of Marquette any differently as a team, I just think this pool is very weak. A lack of quality opponents will let Marquette grab a high seed, and greatly help them to make a run deep in the tournament. I now have them making it to the Elite Eight. That said, I do think Marquette could be negatively impacted by the weather.

Pool 7: I have no changes to my analysis here. I think all three teams could make runs in the bracket if the matchups fall right for them.

Pool 8: If possible, I think I actually under-explained how excited I am for the Boston University (Boston, MA)-Villanova University (Villanova, PA) matchup. I don't think I properly explained the stakes in my first column. The loser can be seeded no higher than 13, which will require tough matchups in both the Round of 32 and Sweet Sixteen. I initially picked both teams to make the Elite Eight, and I do think they're two of the top 8 teams, but the loser of this match will have a very tough road to the final eight. Finally, I think that both these teams could be hurt by the warm weather, and the possible impact that might have on their conditioning as the day wears on. Within group play I don't see anyone poised to pull an upset, but Austin Quidditch's (Austin, TX) weather advantage may help them overcome Central Michigan University (Mount Pleasant, MI). Ultimately though, I still think the same three teams will advance in the same order based on the talent disparity I perceive.

Pool 9: I have no changes to my analysis here.

Pool 10: I think I underestimated University of Richmond a bit in my initial analysis. I would not be the least bit surprised if they overcame Ohio State University (Columbus, OH) to take the third bracket slot. Ultimately, I'm still going with OSU, but that game should be exciting and of a very high quality. As has been a common theme, Tufts ability to advance to the Round of 16 will depend on the matchup they draw.

Pool 11: I have no changes to my analysis here.

Pool 12: Like I said about USF, and Florida, I think the University of Miami (Coral Gables, FL) could benefit from having a short distance to travel. However, this doesn't change my picks in anyway.

Now as promised, my bracket. Please note, as I said before, this is not meant to replace the original picks I made. Rather this is how I see things playing out when I predict matchups. However, in my official picks, I did not consider matchups since I believe them to be so volatile and difficult to guess.

Seeds

Round of 32

Sweet Sixteen

Elite Eight

Final Four Championship Match Champion