The Monday Snitch: Southwest Regional Preview
This weekend, 15 of the Southwest's fiercest teams...
Photo courtesy of Paxton Casey
The Favorite:
No. 1 Texas A&M (College Station, TX)
Normally, you would expect to see a number of names under the favorites list, but at this tournament, there is only one. Texas A&M has beaten good teams, such as the No. 13 Baylor University Bears (Waco, TX), No. 18 Marquette University (Milwaukee, WI), No. 21 Texas State University (San Marcos, TX) and No. 31 Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA). They've won with offense, scoring 200 and 180 points in two matches against Marquette, and with defense, holding Marquette to 40 points in one of the two matches those teams played. They continued their defensive streak by holding LSU to 40, Baylor to 30 and Texas State to 0. A&M has done just about everything this year, except for one thing: lose. The only possible obstacle for the Aggies may be rust, as unlike many of their opponents, they have not played yet in 2013. A lot of the other teams in the Southwest have played each other recently at either the Mardi Gras Cup hosted by LSU or the Bottom of the Bracket hosted by Rice. Texas A&M, on the other hand, has not played an official match since November 18th. Until anyone shows an ability to play up to A&M's level, the Yell Leaders better prepare for a dip in Fish Pond, as the Aggies will be victorious.
The Other Favorite:
No. 4 University of Texas Austin (Austin, TX)
If the Aggies are the favorite, then their rivals from Austin are not far behind. Texas has dominated lately, cruising to the title at the Mardi Gras Cup three weeks ago with a 150-40 victory over the hosts in the championship match. At that tournament, no team even pulled within snitch range of this squad. This season, Texas is 9-1 against teams that will be at this tournament, with their lone stumble coming by 10 points to Baylor. They also own wins over newly-minted Western Region Champion University of California Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA), and World Cup qualifiers Northern Arizona University (Flagstaff, AZ). Texas' ultimate measure for this tournament may be in how they fare against Texas A&M. UT will have no difficulty qualifying for the World Cup, but getting past A&M will prove much trickier.
The Contenders:
No. 31 Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA)
LSU may be struggling this year, but only because they're being compared to the Texas squads. LSU has suffered just four defeats on the year: one each to Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor and Austin Quidditch (Austin, TX). Still, after they were defeated by Texas and Austin in the Mardi Gras Cup, LSU is a distant third compared to the other traditional powers of the Southwest. This is certainly less than we would have expected from the two-time World Cup quarterfinalist, but they are still capable of assembling two-days of championship caliber play. It is almost certain that this squad will be going to the World Cup.
No. 13 Baylor University Bears (Waco, TX)
If anyone tells you they predicted Baylor to have the season they're putting together, they're either a liar or a Bear. Although they played Texas, Texas A&M and LSU in fairly close matches in the past, what they've accomplished this year has been outstanding for such a new team. They've already defeated Texas, LSU and Texas State, while losing by just 40 points to Texas A&M (the squad's closest match) and 20 to Marquette. Baylor is 6-1 against teams that will be travelling to this tournament, and 8-2 overall on this year. All in all, it is pretty much assured that the Bears will earn their first trip to the World Cup.
Predictions:
With six more World Cup spots on the line in addition to the four favorites, there are a number of teams in the Southwest that are good enough to qualify. Outside of the four previously mentioned teams, it will likely come down to matchups and scheduling to see who advances. With that in mind, I'm not going to address the teams specifically, but rather each pool, and then make predictions from the resulting bracket.
Before we dive in, it is worth noting that bracket seeding will be determined in the following manner: winning percentage, head-to-head, median point differential, snitch catch percentage, coin flip.
Pool 1:
No. 21 Texas State (San Marcos, TX)
No. 52 Austin Quidditch (Austin, TX)
No. 53 Northern Colorado Golden Griffins (Greeley, CO)
No. 130 The Denver Dementors (Denver, CO)
Right away, we start off with a pool that I could see going any number of ways. Texas State beats the teams they should beat and lose to the teams that are better. They hold wins this year over Austin Quidditch, Rice University Quidditch League (Houston, TX), University of North Texas (Denton, TX) and Southwestern Oklahoma State University. Meanwhile, their only losses were by 40 to No. 13 Baylor and 50 to No. 1 Texas A&M. Of particular interest in this region is their previous 110-60 victory over Austin Quidditch.
Texas State's victory over Austin happened in October, and there may not be a hotter team than Austin Quidditch at the moment. At the Mardi Gras Cup, they played LSU in tight games twice, beating the host in pool play before succumbing in a bracket matchup. Further, Austin Quidditch has played an exceptionally difficult schedule, with matches against No. 4 Texas, No. 1 Texas A&M, No. 21 Texas State, and No. 5 UCLA already under their belt. Austin owns a 160-70 victory over Northern Colorado from November, which should be a wide enough margin to indicate who the better team is.
Northern Colorado has similarly played in difficult matchups, losing to No. 4 University of Texas Austin and No. 5 UCLA, along with a victory over World Cup-qualifier Northern Arizona. The Golden Griffins have also lost twice to Utah Crimson Fliers and beaten Denver twice.
Denver may be the dark horse of this pool as little is known about them, but their two losses to Northern Colorado become particularly telling.
Austin Quidditch 3-0
Texas State 2-1
Northern Colorado 1-2
Denver 0-3
Pool 2:
No. 1 Texas A&M University (College Station, TX)
No. 31 Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA)
No. 73 Sam Houston State University (Huntsville, TX)
Hendrix College (Conway, AR) dropped out of the tournament at the last minute, and all teams will be awarded a victory as their highest point differential. Hendrix dropping out should have no impact on the teams' records, nor should it affect the point differentials. The relative gulf between all three teams is large, and I really don't see anything close to an upset coming out of this pool. That said, this is by far the toughest pool, and that may impact all three teams when it comes to seeding. If this pool had been drawn basically any other way, all three would have been capable of much better point differentials than they will ultimately have. While Texas A&M will capture this pool and LSU will finish second, Sam Houston State is a capable team. That squad recently captured the Bottom of the Bracket Invitational in January, although they won just once at the Mardi Gras Cup the following week. While they may have been a contender to qualify for the World Cup with a more favorable draw, their schedule this weekend may make it difficult - though I'm not ruling it out.
Texas A&M 3-0
LSU 2-1
Sam Houston State 1-2
Pool 3:
No. 4 University of Texas Austin (Austin, TX)
No. 34 University of Arkansas (Fayetteville, AR)
No. 75 Roadrunner Quidditch (San Antonio, TX)
No. 89 Loyola University New Orleans (New Orleans, LA)
Texas is clearly the class of Pool 3, and shouldn't have any real difficulty. Arkansas is a bit of an unknown group, with very few experienced teams on their schedule thus far. The Razorbacks have beaten University of Arkansas Fort Smith (Fort Smith, AR) five times this year, and also possess two wins over University of Missouri (Columbia, MO) and Oklahoma Baptist University (Shawnee, OK). In addition, Arkansas has beaten Hendrix College and University of Northern Illinois Nargles (Dekalb, IL), split two games with Oklahoma State University (Stillwater, OK) and lost twice to No. 14 University of Kansas (Lawrence, KS). In short, they've beaten a lot of low-ranking teams, and haven't played many highly ranked squads.
Roadrunner Quidditch does not suffer from a lack of exposure to top teams - they have played plenty, but beaten very few. In January, they advanced to the finals of the Bottom of the Bracket before succumbing to Sam Houston State, but outside of that, wins have been few and far between. The Roadrunners are 5-9 on the year, and although they've suffered narrow losses to Texas and LSU, there is no sign that they can beat either team. In addition, they've also lost to lesser teams such as Austin Quidditch, Sam Houston State and University of Central Florida (Orlando, FL).
Loyola boasts an identical record to Roadrunner and a similar schedule (a number of losses to tops teams) with some wins and some losses to lesser teams. The difference between these two squads may be minimal, but my gut tells me that Roadrunner is the better team. Roadrunner lost more narrowly to Sam Houston State, and also beat Rice by a larger margin, so at the end of the day, I'm going to go with Roadrunner to finish third in Pool 3 and Loyola fourth.
Texas 3-0
Arkansas 2-1
Roadrunner 1-2
Loyola 0-3
Pool 4:
No. 13 Baylor University Bears (Waco, TX)
No. 35 Oklahoma State University (Stillwater, OK)
No. 78 Silver Phoenixes (College Station, TX)
No. 121 University of North Texas (Denton, TX)
Baylor is clearly the favorite in this pool, and could end up with a very good overall seed resulting from point differentials. Oklahoma State appears similar to Arkansas in that they've beaten a number of poor teams, and lost to the better teams they faced. Overall though, Oklahoma State's track record appears slightly worse than Arkansas'. Oklahoma Baptist is ranked No. 90 overall, yet Oklahoma State surrendered 230 points to them in September (still winning 240-230). The Cowboys were also blown out by Kansas 180-20 and 120-40 in the two games those squads played. It's tough to read Oklahoma State based on their past performances.
The Silver Phoenixes have certainly played a tough schedule, though they've mostly stuck with their elite competition. They lost by 50 and 80 in two games against Baylor, and while blown out once by Texas, also managed just a 70-point defeat in another game. Similarly, the Silver Phoenixes lost by 60 to LSU. They do own a 70-point win over Loyola at the Bottom of the Bracket, and have also played three tight games with Sam Houston State, winning one. Not having to travel could prove to be an advantage for the Silver Phoenixes, since as Texas A&M's B-Team, they will host the tournament on their campus.
North Texas enters the regional having played 11 games without winning a single match. Teams occasionally come out of nowhere, but frankly, I'd be shocked if North Texas musters a win in pool play.
Baylor 3-0
Silver Phoenixes 2-1
Oklahoma State 1-2
North Texas 0-3
Bracket Play:
Below are my projected seeds entering bracket play:
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Baylor
4. Austin
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Texas State
8. Silver Phoenixes
9. Oklahoma State
10. Northern Colorado
11. Roadrunner
12. Sam Houston State
13. Denver
14. Loyola
15. North Texas
Winners of the first round of bracket play (and thereby World Cup qualifiers):
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Baylor
4. Austin
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Texas State
8. Oklahoma State
Quarterfinal Winners:
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Baylor
4. LSU
Semifinal Winners:
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
Southwest Champion:
Texas A&M
I think Texas A&M ekes out the title in a classic final. When two teams of such a high quality meet, freshness can be a huge advantage. The fact that Texas A&M is at home and plays one fewer game is enough to give them an edge in my book, even with a tougher schedule. Texas has played a lot more games this spring, and may be more adept at handling the rigors of a long tournament, but I don't think it's enough to take the trophy. Overall, I think with both teams being fired up and laying it all on the line, the best team will come out on top.
Consolation Bracket:
Silver Phoenixes def. BYE
Sam Houston State def. Denver
Roadrunners def. Loyola
Northern Colorado def. North Texas
Consolation Semifinals (Winners advance to World Cup)
Sam Houston State def Silver Phoenixes
Northern Colorado def. Roadrunners
Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, LSU, Austin Quidditch, Arkansas, Texas State, Oklahoma State, Sam Houston State, and Northern Colorado all qualify for the World Cup.
